Dear democrats and republicans, here is how to win the election
It looks like a Biden vs Trump match in November. Funny enough, neither of those is the best choice for their party.
In the United States, a presidential election is not merely a routine voting process; rather, it unfolds as a spectacle that captivates the nation for an entire year. In January, the primaries begin: The two parties start selecting their nominees. The obvious favorites: Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
However, just because those are favorites, should they actually select them? Will they win the election for their party?
Biden is a solid choice but Trump will probably lose, if the republicans nominate him. Let’s compare the alternatives.
Apparently, Gavin Newsom gets even better chances than Biden, even if he is not a current president. He declined though.
Nikki Haley would be a much promising candidate than Donald Trump. At least, if the goal is simply a republican president. That doesn’t seem to be the case. A general majority would prefers a Haley presidency, but a republican majority prefers a Trump presidency. Here is the framing of republican media:
There's no future in the Republican Party for someone who's been endorsed by Politico and The New York Times. So Nikki Haley can be a media hero, or she can be a leader in the GOP, but she cannot be both. -Laura Ingraham, Fox News
One of the my goals with this newsletter is to “explore how we can make better decisions.” Cannot be more obvious than this: Democrats/Republicans, if you want to win in November, then nominate according to these markets.
Wait, how accurate is this? Polls are not very accurate so long before the election, are they? Also, there is only few traders on Manifold there.
Correct. These are valid arguments to not trust the numbers too much. I hope, they will gain some more traders until the final decisions in June. Nevertheless, the above market take input from betting markets so the confidence is slightly higher than this smaller number of traders suggests.
The multiple choice user interface of Manifold is great for such comparisons. They are not really conditional markets though because a trader needs to invest more than necessary. All but one will return the money. Instead, if you invest in one, an investment for the others should be for free. Locking away money for months without gaining interest discourages investment.
Metaculus has conditional “markets” but only supports it by linking two binary questions. Polymarket has no conditionals. So there is no perfect solution yet for marketwise decision making. Way to go, everybody!
Of course, the politicians will ignore this because the Financial Times found out: US is afraid of prediction markets.
Probably until next week, my fearless readers! 😊