No Chance for Coalitions in Germany?
Two German states have voted, but every possible government coalition was already ruled out beforehand. Now what?
Last weekend, there were two important elections in Germany. Thuringia and Saxony are two of the 16 federal states, each with its own state parliament. These elections determine which parties will control local government. Back in March, I published a (german) preview of these elections, but now the situation has become even more intriguing.
In contrast to the USA or UK, Germany has more than two relevant parties. That means after an election comes another phase were coalitions between parties are negotiated. With sixteen states, we have a colorful mix of all kind of parties. There is a conservative one CDU, one for the workers SPD, one for liberals FDP, a Green one, and a socalist one Lefts. Depending on who you ask (including me), they would describe them differently, but I don’t want to go there. Two more parties are important here:
A special focus is on the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for Germany), an extreme-right political party in Germany known for its anti-immigration, Eurosceptic, and nationalist positions. It is full of Nazis and is supported by Russia.
Another player is BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht, Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance), a new party which participated for the first time. They split from the Left and seems to be an experiment to be far-left and right at the same time.
Thuringia
The leader in Thuringia, Höcke, is a prominent fascist. As polls predicted, AfD emerged as the strongest party. Together with BSW, the two would have a majority. However, BSW refuses to form a coalition with AfD.
Now all eyes are on the conservative CDU, which came in second. They can only form a majority by teaming up with either AfD or BSW. But both options have already been ruled out.
This means: nothing will move forward unless someone changes their stance. The big question is: who will budge?
Saxony
In Saxony, the CDU came ahead of the AfD. The only possible majority without the AfD would be a coalition between the CDU, BSW, and the SPD. So, what else could happen?
Even though the CDU had initially ruled out any cooperation with BSW, the reality is that without them, nothing will work.
AfD in Government?
At the moment, it doesn’t look like the AfD will enter a government coalition. The election results haven’t changed anything about that.
However, this prediction is specifically for "2024." Given that we currently face a general deadlock, it's possible that government formation could drag on into next year. For context, Belgium holds the world record for the longest time without a government, at 541 days.
This newsletter hasn’t had an issue since May, even though it was supposed to be weekly. The main reason is that I’m still struggling with usefulness. Prediction markets are great for boasting when you get things right or some fun gambling. Isn’t that trite? The important still ones tend to get ignored.
I still believe that prediction markets would be a major win for humanity, but I don't currently see how they could become both useful and widely used.
Probably not until next week, loyal readers! 😊
The two questions about Thuringia and Saxony can now also be predicted on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/project/3603/