Swift Triumph: Was it predictable?
Prediction markets did "ok" this time predicting TIME's Person of the Year choice, but there was also some clear bias. There are lessons to be learned, so we can do better next time.
For building a world of her own that made a place for so many, for spinning her story into a global legend, for bringing joy to a society desperately in need of it, Taylor Swift is TIME’s 2023 Person of the Year.
There was a lot of betting on this decision of the Time magazine. The main market slowed down the whole website.
The two favorites were Taylor Swift and Sam Altman.
In hindsight, prediction markets overrated the OpenAI CEO but Ms Swift in a strong second place means they were not hopelessly delusional either. On the other hand, betting markets clearly favored Swift. In second place were Volodymyr Zelenskyy (again) and Elon Musk. That article does not even consider Altman. It seems prediction markets are heavily biased towards AI topics. Alternatively, the general population is still underestimating the impact of AI.
As an aside, there is now a Manifold: Live! show every Sunday and the recording is available on Youtube. The last one was about our topic, so you can watch Michael Wheatley, Joshua, and N.C. Young debate it a few days before the resolution. Interesting watch in hindsight.
That show was December 3. The next day, TIME published a shortlist of nine candidates. On December 6, they revealed Taylor Swift won.
One good argument (from the show) was the Google Trends chart. I should keep that in mind for next year.
The argument for Altman, was maybe more an argument for ChatGPT. Even after ChatGPT was not on the shortlist, it maintained some percentage points speculating that Altman might get it as an add-on. Last year, Zelenskyy got “the spirit of Ukraine” as add-on after all.
Another argument was that Swift is the choice which sells the most magazines.
Scott Alexander also did not understand her significance:
Why is Taylor Swift so high? I understand she’s a very famous pop star, but hasn’t she been an equally famous pop star every one of the past ten years?
On the other hand, there clearly were some Swifties involved.
On the other hand, as you can see in this short interview, Sam Altman was indeed the main competition. He is CEO of the Year now.
Prediction markets did okay this time, but I’m also optimistic that they will do even better next year. There is a high probability it will simply be the traditional choice of whoever is elected as president (and vice president).
To conclude this post, let me quote the victory speech of top forecaster Michael Wheatley which beautiful weaves in Taylor Swift:
I have a victory speech written and I'm adding a mention of arbitrageurs just for you.
you're getting an unsightly mention in my victory speech.
Now look what you made me do.
Mira, after this morning's epiphany, you must be a mad woman, but I hope there won't be any bad blood. It's true, I saw your manas and said, "you belong with me," and indeed, now they'll stay with me for evermore, but isn't that what Manifold is all about? Although you're seeing red right now, I know you'll shake it off. This isn't the endgame, this is a chance to begin again.
Thank you everyone for participating in this market. When I started Manifold back in '22, my balance was a blank space and the all-time leaderboard was a thing of folklore beyond my wildest dreams. After this win I know all too well that in years to come I'll wish I could go back to December, when I was The Man. In the past, I've been called a tryhard, well, this is me trying.
Most of all I would like to thank Taylor Swift. With style and songwriting abilities like no other teeny bopper before her, she was truly the 1, the undisputed Person of the Year.
Well, it's time to mount my escape, but before I leave you all in my getaway car, I would like to conclude with some words for our times:
I don't trust nobody and nobody trusts me
I'll be the actress starring in your bad dreams
I don't trust nobody and nobody trusts meI'll be the actress starring in your bad dreams
I don't trust nobody and nobody trusts me
I'll be the actress starring in your bad dreamsI don't trust nobody and nobody trusts me
I'll be the actress starring in your bad dreams
I'm sorry
But the old Taylor can't come to the phone right now
Why? Oh, 'cause she's dead (oh)
Ooh, look what you made me do
Look what you made me do
Look what you just made me do
Look what you just made me...
Ooh, look what you made me do
Look what you made me do
Look what you just made me do
Look what you just made me do
The decision for the Game of the Year was much more predictable.
This other market had a sad closure. Amazon removed Yudkowsky’s rationalist Harry Potter fanfiction. I was surprised it was even available for over a month.
Probably until next week, my entertained readers! 😊