Looking forward to 2024, you will have to make a decision
The Economist apparently thinks next year is essentially about elections, economies, and wars. Only one of their 16 questions is about something else.
Is it too early? Most people wait until after Christmas to consider the next year. The Economist has a collaboration with Good Judgement project going, where they picked 16 topics for the 2024.
Since I prefer the Manifold user interface, here are copies of the 16 questions. Maybe there will be a comparison of Good Judgement vs Manifold at some point…
Elections will be a big topic next year. In fact, 2024 is the biggest election year in history with 4.2 billion people voting. That is over half the world’s population. EU, US, and India are the biggest blocks, but also Indonesia, Mexico, and others. I expect that effectively all my readers will participate in some election.
Another group of questions from the Economist are about GDP, the usual proxy metric for how the economy will do.
Third, the war in Ukraine gets attention but Israel only gets one question about the Palestinian leader. I assume they mostly developed the questions before the Hamas attack. They also consider tensions around China.
That’s it. Elections, economies, and wars. That is what 2024 will be about?
Oh, wait! There is one more: In NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton, will the Supreme Court rule that the viewpoint-based censorship restrictions (Section 7) in Texas' social media censorship law (HB 20) complies with the First Amendment? (43% at the time of writing at GJOpen vs 42% at Manifold)
Elections are interesting because each and every voter has to make a decision. While the options are limited, the assessment is complex. As decisions are my shtick here, we will probably explore some ways how to make them. Hopefully, it will help you make a good decision.
I’m trying to get a forecasting community in the Fediverse going, but so far I’m the only one posting links. So for your convenience, here are two recent noteworthy ones:
Prediction Markets Are Not Polls and there is even a market by the author if you disagree with him.
Markets in fact-checking is from February. I wish I would have known that one when I wrote about the same topic.
Probably until next week, my oracular readers! 😊