> Each prediction market is arbitraging the different answers to add up to 100, so positive bets on random candidates are inadvertently negative bets on Biden
The thing I find unsatisfying about this is that it doesn't explain why the same thing doesn't happen on Manifold.
> Each prediction market is arbitraging the different answers to add up to 100, so positive bets on random candidates are inadvertently negative bets on Biden
The thing I find unsatisfying about this is that it doesn't explain why the same thing doesn't happen on Manifold.