Prediction markets are still underrated, so there is more to tell about them. The goals for this weekly publication are:

• News, but not about last week, but about the future.

• Preach the goodness and usefulness of prediction markets.

• Build a community of enthusiasts about prediction markets.

• Explore how we can make better decisions.

Prediction Markets?

It looks like the stock market, but the price actually tells you the probability of an event. An example:

The method of “markets to predict things” deserves more attention, so I write about it.

If you want to know more, Scott Alexander wrote a great FAQ.

Decisions?

Predicting stuff is fun on its own but the gold is in making better decisions. Robin Hanson described it will in this talk:

The two examples he sees as the best starting points apparently are questions about “new hires” and “deadlines”. He might be right. In this newsletter, I hope to explore the possibilities. For example, “fake news” are interesting too.

Why subscribe?

E-Mail is still one of the most reliable ways to stay in contact:

Actually, I would prefer if you use a feedreader (it works!) but they tell me an awful lot of people prefer email.

I really appreciate any kind of feedback. Via admonymous you can tell me anything anonymously.