Archive - Marketwise

No Chance for Coalitions in Germany?

Two German states have voted, but every possible government coalition was already ruled out beforehand. Now what?

Sep 5 •

May 2024

Honest Game Reviews

Journalism is tricky in many industries but the games industry might be particularly biased.

May 8 •

April 2024

March 2024

Manifund: Prediction Markets but Charity

Got a free $500 to invest in impact certificates, so I have to figure out how this works now.

Mar 29 •

Certainly, here is a prediction market

Creating prediction markets is not easy. Here too, AI can help.

Mar 22 •

How Much to Bet for Max Profits?

A fox learns the hard way before the Kelly criterion tells us the exact answer.

Mar 16 •

Why is nobody using prediction markets if they are so great?

"It interferes with our ability to shape the narrative," he said. That isn't the only reason though.

Mar 9 •

February 2024

Germany’s Cannabis Law: Details Matter

How a small difference in phrasing can be very important and it may have confounded some forecasters.

Feb 28 •

Did CoViD-19 come from a lab? The truth.

A man bets $100,000 that CoViD-19 doesn't come from the lab. Here is why this is a good example of how to find the truth.

Feb 21 •

Forecasting the Metaculus Conditional Cup

Read my rationale about various questions, mostly geopolitics.

Feb 10 •

Why prediction markets are rarely useful

I used prediction markets for years. They are entertaining but I have to admit nearly none were actually useful to me. I have two ideas why.

Feb 4 •

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