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No Chance for Coalitions in Germany?
Two German states have voted, but every possible government coalition was already ruled out beforehand. Now what?
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Andreas
1

May 2024

Honest Game Reviews
Journalism is tricky in many industries but the games industry might be particularly biased.
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Andreas

April 2024

Real Estate Crisis in China
I'll compile some data about the events in China but ultimately it becomes a question about the meaning of "crisis".
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Andreas
Should Scrum teams use Prediction Markets?
As a software developer, I want to forecast my sprint, so that my promises hold.
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Andreas

March 2024

Manifund: Prediction Markets but Charity
Got a free $500 to invest in impact certificates, so I have to figure out how this works now.
 • 
Andreas
Certainly, here is a prediction market
Creating prediction markets is not easy. Here too, AI can help.
 • 
Andreas
How Much to Bet for Max Profits?
A fox learns the hard way before the Kelly criterion tells us the exact answer.
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Andreas
Why is nobody using prediction markets if they are so great?
"It interferes with our ability to shape the narrative," he said. That isn't the only reason though.
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Andreas
4

February 2024

Germany’s Cannabis Law: Details Matter
How a small difference in phrasing can be very important and it may have confounded some forecasters.
 • 
Andreas
Did CoViD-19 come from a lab? The truth.
A man bets $100,000 that CoViD-19 doesn't come from the lab. Here is why this is a good example of how to find the truth.
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Andreas
2
Forecasting the Metaculus Conditional Cup
Read my rationale about various questions, mostly geopolitics.
 • 
Andreas
Why prediction markets are rarely useful
I used prediction markets for years. They are entertaining but I have to admit nearly none were actually useful to me. I have two ideas why.
 • 
Andreas
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